Helsingin yliopiston tutkija ja kirjailija Panu Pihkaka kävi 5.10.2023 pitämässä Linnankosken Lukiolla luennon meillekin hyvin ajankohtaisista ilmastotunteista. Luennolla oli oikein letkeä ja oppimiseen suuntautunut tunnelma:
The initial suggestion for our daily
programme
Fri 20.10.
departure of the flight at 17:10
Sat. 21.10. –
arrival of the flight at 7.25, arrival at the research station at about
seven in the evening
Sun 22.10. church
visit and visit to Mwadime’s home
Mon 23.10. school visit .
Tue 24.1. –
Wed 25.10. –
students visiting local families
(two-three students/ family, five families needed…)
Thu 26.10. Ngangao
forest (?), visiting Darius’s home (this could be also on the sisal day)
Fri 27.10. –
Kasigau
Sat 28.10. – safari
Sun 29.10. –
departure for Nairobi in the morning, visiting Nairobi National Museum
at 18:00
Mon
30.10. visiting Lake Naivasha
Tue 31.10. –
visiting Nairobi University/ CAVS, visiting Kibera
Wen 1.11. departure
of the flight at 01:35, arrival to Helsinki at 14:20
vähän swahilia...
otetaan tässä periaatteessa mahdollisimman yksinkertyainen asia, lukusanat 1-10
1 moja, 2 mbili, 3 tatu, 4 nne, 5 tano, 6 sita, 7 saba, 8 nane, 9 tisa, 10 kumi
siis yksinkertaisia sanoina (lähdetään siitä että äännetään kuten kirjoitetaan, 'j' luitenkin kuten englannin John -nimesssä)
alussa ollut 'periaatteessa' luonnehdinta tarkoittaa mm. sitä että käytössä (puheessa, tekstissä) osassa lukusanoista (lukusanat 1-5 ja 8) tapahtuu pientää muutosta pääsanan mukaan (tämä liittyy swahilin substantiiveihin, jotka ovat kielen hankalin osa.)
ei tehdä tästä ongelmaa, unohdetaan asia,...mutta kuitenkin voi olla hyvä muistaa tämä siinä mielessä, että jos näkee tai puheesta tunnistaa jotakin näihin lukusanoihin liittyvää, niin se voi selittää asiaa, siis miksi lukusdana käytössä voi erota noisdsta luetelluista
mutta nuo 10 lukusanaa kannattaa (pitää) osata
El Nino ilmiön ennustetaan/pidetään mahdollisena vaikuttavan tulevaan sadekauteen Itä-Keniassakin...
NATURE'S WRATH
Heavy rains in
September-October due to El Niño — Met
Update from World
Meteorological Department combines forecasts, global expert guidance and expert
guidance.
In Summary
•WMO says
the new update is a signal to governments around the world to
preparations to limit the impacts on health, ecosystems and economies.
• El Ńino It is a naturally occurring climate pattern
associated with the warming of the ocean surface temperatures.
GIMME SHELTER: City dwellers use
umbrellas to protect themselves from the rain.
Image: FILE
Heavy rains are expected to
pound Kenya from September or October as a result of El Niño, likely
bringing flooding, flashfloods and landslides.
And disease, such as malaria
and dengue fever.
And certainly El Niño
conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven
years.
The World Meteorological
Department say there will be a likely surge in global temperatures and
disruptive weather and climate patterns.
In fact, the probability of
the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023 is 90 per cent and
is expected to be at least moderate in strength.
WMO's update combines
forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.
In anticipation of El Niño,
the World Health Organization has asked countries to prepare for possible
disease outbreaks.
Diseases such as dengue and
malaria are likely to occur due to the El Niño weather phenomenon in 2023 and
2024.
Malaria, chikungunya virus and
dengue virus are endemic causes of illness among children in Kenya, and
outbreaks are common in wet seasons.
Both chikungunya and dengue
are transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, while malaria is transmitted
by the Anopheles mosquito.
World Meterological
Organization secretary general Prof Petteri Taalas said El Niño would greatly
increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more
extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean.
“The declaration of an
El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise
preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our
economies,” he said.
“Early warnings and
anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major
climate phenomenon are vital to saving lives and livelihoods,” Taalas said.
El Niño occurs on average
every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
It is a naturally occurring
climate pattern sue to the warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the
central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It takes place in the context
of a climate changed by human activities.
On May 16, the Kenya
Meteorological Department issued an update saying El Nino is expected to occur
during the October to December season.
Kenya Met Director Dr David
Gikungu said during El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central
and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average.
La Niña is characterised by
cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same regions.
“El Niño is often associated
with heavy rains and floods during the OND {October-November-December} season
especially in East Africa,” Gikungu said.
Model predictions and expert
assessment indicate a moderate probability (60 per cent chance) for the onset
of El Niño during May to July this year.
“This probability is expected
to increase to 60-70 per cent during June to August and it is highly likely,
with a chance of 70 to 80 per cent in July through October 2023,"
the meteorologist said
El Niño conditions are expected
to persist up to the OND 2023 rainfall season and may extend to the November to
January season, Gikungu said.
He said it is important to
note that El Niño itself is not rain, but rather an effect that can impact
weather patterns and lead to heavier-than-normal rainfall in East Africa.
“While heavy rains are
commonly experienced during El Niño events, it is also notable that these
effects are typically most significant during the ONDJ
{October-November-December-January} months and not in June, July and August,"
he said.
"It should also be
understood that El Niño is not necessarily a direct cause of heavy rainfall.
While it can impact weather patterns and result in heavier-than-normal
rainfall, the effects of El Niño can vary significantly between events,”
Gikungu said.
Gikungu said in 1987, for
instance, the OND season was an El Niño event that did not result in heavy
rainfall over the country.
In 2015, the El Niño index was
higher than that of 1997 but the country did not experience as much rainfall as
it did in 1997.
Gikungu said Kenya Met is
monitoring the situation and will be providing timely updates.
In May, WMO released a report
predicting a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years,
and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. It will
likely exceed the record set in 2016 when there was an exceptionally strong El
Niño.
WMO’s State of the Global
Climate reports 2016 was the warmest year on record because of the “double
whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from
greenhouse gases.
The effect on global
temperatures usually plays out the year after its development and will likely
be most apparent in 2024.
The average global temperature
in 2022 was about 1.15 °C above the 1850-1900 average because of the cooling
triple-dip La Niña.
El Niño events are typically
associated with increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern
United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also
cause severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central
America and northern South America.
WMO said since February 2023, monthly average sea
surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have
warmed significantly.
Helsingin yliopiston tutkija ja kirjailija Panu Pihkaka kävi 5.10.2023 pitämässä Linnankosken Lukiolla luennon meillekin hyvin ajankohtais...
